Abstract
High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza HPAI H5N1 is currently emerging as a novel, fundamental but poorly understood threat to wild birds. HPAI H5N1 spilled over into European seabird populations in 2021 with particularly devastating effects on Northern gannets (Morus bassanus) across their global distribution, but we currently lack a comprehensive understanding of the long-term outbreak impact. Here, we estimate the demographic consequences of the 2022 HPAI outbreak on the NorthEast Atlantic gannet metapopulation using a mechanistic Bayesian state space model. We estimate that the outbreak reduced the metapopulation to 54 % of the theoretical baseline size. We predict that, on average, the metapopulation will be unable to recover until 2065, more than four decades after the outbreak. We simulate 3125 possible future outbreak scenarios spanning 2024 – 2100 to quantify the importance of relevant characteristics (e.g. immunity, frequency and spatial radius of spread). Based on these, we map the vulnerability of all colonies to future outbreaks at short-term, intermediate and long-term timescales across the entire metapopulation. Our study provides a new baseline of gannet colony trajectories and highlights colonies at risk of future outbreaks. Such assessments of long-term outbreak impacts are urgently needed for precautionary conservation management of the manifold additional stressors threatening gannets and other impacted seabird species.
Co-Author(s)
Stephen C. Votier, School of Energy, Geoscience, Infrastructure and Society, The Lyell Centre, Herriot Watt University, Edinburgh, UK
Jude V. Lane, RSPB Centre for Conservation Science, The Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, Sandy, UK
Holly I. Niven, School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
Emma J. A. Cunningham, Institute of Ecology and Evolution, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
Sarah Wanless, UK Centre for Hydrology & Ecology Bush Estate, Penicuik, EH260QB, UK
Jason Matthiopoulos, School of Biodiversity, One Health and Veterinary Medicine, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK
Abstract Category
Mortality estimations, impacts on harvest, conservation considerations, and potential mitigation strategies in wild birds