Abstract Title
Evolutionary Dynamics of Avian Influenza Virus and Prediction of Pandemic Risk: A Study Based on Patterns of Mutation and Reassortment
Abstract
Avian influenza poses a severe threat to both human and animal health, presenting significant challenges to the global poultry industry and public health. Since 2005, at least 422 million poultry have died, leading to over 2,634 human infections and more than 1,000 deaths. In recent years, the continuous mutation and reassortment of avian influenza viruses have made epidemic control increasingly complex and urgent. These mutations and reassortments not only enhance the virus's infectivity in poultry but also raise concerns about its potential to cross species barriers and threaten human health. However, the complexity and uncertainty associated with mutations and reassortments severely hinder the prediction and scientific management of avian influenza outbreaks. Therefore, we utilize techniques such as molecular evolution and machine learning to investigate the rules governing the mutation and reassortment of avian influenza viruses, with the aim of predicting and responding to potential pandemics. The study aims to explore the distribution patterns and frequencies of mutations across different subtypes and regions, as well as the correlation between these mutations and various evolutionary stages of the virus. It will also investigate the patterns and rules of reassortment among different subtypes and hosts, along with their correlation to epidemic risks. By analyzing the dynamics of mutations and reassortments, the study seeks to uncover potential correlations between these processes and virus transmission/adaptation. Additionally, it aims to establish a mathematical model to predict the risk of avian influenza pandemics, ultimately providing scientific guidance for public health safety.
Co-Author(s)
Jialu Zheng School of Public Health (Shenzhen), Shenzhen Campus of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China
Abstract Category
Notable outbreaks, field and molecular epidemiology, and surveillance in wild birds