Abstract Title
Simulated evaluation of the time to detection for highly pathogenic avian influenza infected table egg layer houses
Abstract
Permitted movement of poultry and poultry products from Control Areas (CA) established around highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) infected premises allows for continuity of business while managing the risk of outbreak spread. The Secure Poultry Supply permit conditions typically include measures such as heightened biosecurity and negative diagnostic test results close to the time of product movement. In the United States, table egg movements are managed using permits and are classified as negligible to low risk. Eggs from table egg layer premises are often stored on-site for multiple days post-lay prior to shipment. These eggs are destroyed if the egg laying birds are confirmed infected with HPAI. If a high degree of certainty as to which eggs were laid prior to HPAI virus (HPAIv) infection could be determined, some eggs may be able to be moved to market. To this end, we used a stochastic within-house HPAI transmission and active surveillance simulation model to evaluate the time to detection following exposure of a layer house to HPAIv. The time to detection is evaluated under two scenarios: 1) for the active surveillance protocol used for permitting, representative of a layer house located inside a CA, and 2) for a mortality trigger alone, representative of a layer house located outside a CA. Additionally, we assess the number of internally contaminated eggs that could have been moved from the layer house to the cooler prior to detection of HPAI. This analysis may help producers market uncontaminated eggs from an HPAI-infected layer premises.
Co-Author(s)
Peter Bonney (1), Amos Ssematimba (1,2), Kaitlyn St. Charles (1), Mickey Leonard (1), Rosemary Marusak (1), Sylvia Wanzala (1), Marie Culhane (1), Carol Cardona (1)
1) Secure Food Systems Team, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108, USA
2) Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda
Abstract Category
Biosecurity, mitigation, control, and post-epidemic considerations in poultry