Abstract Title
Preparedness tools for managing avian influenza in the Danish cattle population
Abstract
In recent years, a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) pandemic has severely impacted global wild bird populations, with zoonotic transmission documented from avian species to various mammalian hosts, including humans. Ongoing outbreaks on cattle farms in the United States have heightened international concern, including Denmark, regarding the potential for similar spillover events into other livestock, such as cattle. Such events could have serious implications for animal health, heighten zoonotic risks to human health, and lead to considerable economic repercussions.
In response, we launched a three-year collaborative project with the Danish cattle industry to equip Danish farmers and risk managers with contingency tools to effectively respond to potential avian influenza virus (AIV) outbreaks across multiple livestock species. The project's first phase focuses on identifying high-risk spillover areas where surveillance systems could be strengthened. In the following phase, we will develop a mechanistic model to predict AIV transmission between poultry and cattle, enabling the identification of hotspots within this multi-species transmission network. The final phase will involve assessing the effectiveness and efficiency of various intervention scenarios to optimize Denmark's preparedness strategies.
Our initial study produced a quantitative risk map illustrating the relative spatial risk of AIV spillover from wild birds to poultry and cattle. Using the classic epidemiological risk equation, the model identifies transmission hotspots, indicating that the highest risk is concentrated in relatively small-scaled geographic areas in Denmark. These findings suggest that targeted, risk-based surveillance may be an especially effective strategy for the Danish Veterinary Authorities and private industry stakeholders.
In response, we launched a three-year collaborative project with the Danish cattle industry to equip Danish farmers and risk managers with contingency tools to effectively respond to potential avian influenza virus (AIV) outbreaks across multiple livestock species. The project's first phase focuses on identifying high-risk spillover areas where surveillance systems could be strengthened. In the following phase, we will develop a mechanistic model to predict AIV transmission between poultry and cattle, enabling the identification of hotspots within this multi-species transmission network. The final phase will involve assessing the effectiveness and efficiency of various intervention scenarios to optimize Denmark's preparedness strategies.
Our initial study produced a quantitative risk map illustrating the relative spatial risk of AIV spillover from wild birds to poultry and cattle. Using the classic epidemiological risk equation, the model identifies transmission hotspots, indicating that the highest risk is concentrated in relatively small-scaled geographic areas in Denmark. These findings suggest that targeted, risk-based surveillance may be an especially effective strategy for the Danish Veterinary Authorities and private industry stakeholders.
Co-Author(s)
You Chang, University of Copenhagen
Beate Conrady, University of Copenhagen
Abstract Category
Avian influenza in mammals, pandemic preparedness, and one health