Abstract Title
Modelling wild-domestic bird interfaces at risk of avian influenza spillover
Abstract
Since 2003, H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses have spread across Asia and many countries worldwide, leading to substantial financial losses, significant public health and biodiversity conservation concerns. These viruses have diversified into various genetic lineages and clades, adapting to a wide range of hosts, including birds, mammals, and humans. Migratory waterfowl are natural reservoirs and long-distance carriers of HPAI. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has played a key role in supporting member countries through technical assistance, policy guidance, and early warning systems to control HPAI viruses with pandemic potential.
To better understand HPAI spillover risks, a spatially explicit approach was developed to identify and predict interfaces between wild and domestic birds globally, regionally, and nationally. This method utilizes the spatial distribution of wild bird species susceptible to avian influenza, the density of domestic birds, and historical HPAI outbreak data. It operates on the assumption that greater co-occurrence of susceptible wild bird species increases spillover probabilities. The model incorporates seasonal distribution patterns of wild bird species’ richness, long-distance migration from breeding and wintering grounds, and expert knowledge on their eco-epidemiological role on virus transmission to assess risk. The resulting seasonal and regional hotspots were validated at both country and regional levels, facilitating rapid risk assessments.
Additionally, a framework for a global early warning tool for avian influenza was developed to support real-time risk monitoring, data sharing, and interpretation at the country level to enhance response strategies to HPAI threats.
To better understand HPAI spillover risks, a spatially explicit approach was developed to identify and predict interfaces between wild and domestic birds globally, regionally, and nationally. This method utilizes the spatial distribution of wild bird species susceptible to avian influenza, the density of domestic birds, and historical HPAI outbreak data. It operates on the assumption that greater co-occurrence of susceptible wild bird species increases spillover probabilities. The model incorporates seasonal distribution patterns of wild bird species’ richness, long-distance migration from breeding and wintering grounds, and expert knowledge on their eco-epidemiological role on virus transmission to assess risk. The resulting seasonal and regional hotspots were validated at both country and regional levels, facilitating rapid risk assessments.
Additionally, a framework for a global early warning tool for avian influenza was developed to support real-time risk monitoring, data sharing, and interpretation at the country level to enhance response strategies to HPAI threats.
Co-Author(s)
C. Pittiglio (FAO),
A. Falcucci (FAO),
G. Cinardi (FAO),
I. Seck (FAO),
MC. Dupas (Université libre de Bruxelles - ULB),
GT. Whittle (ULB),
M. Gilbert (ULB),
X. Roche (FAO),
N. Lyons (FAO),
A. Delgado (FAO),
C. Lockhart (FAO),
B. Soumare (FAO),
M. Dhingra (FAO).
Abstract Category
Avian influenza in mammals, pandemic preparedness, and one health